Skip to Content

US Economic Outlook: Q1 2025

How Will Federal Monetary Policy Shape the US Economy in 2025?

As 2025 begins, economic growth is slowing, with US real GDP lower at 2.3% in Q4 2024, down from the 3% average in prior quarters. Unemployment is expected to increase to 4.3% in 2025, while inflation remains stubborn but continues its gradual decline.


With a potential shift in trade policy under the new presidential administration, our analysts assess the likelihood of tariff hikes and their impact on US GDP. If implemented, we don’t anticipate these measures will be sustained long-term.


With the potential implementation of the new presidential administration’s tariffs, our analysts evaluate the probability of tariff hike scenarios and each scenario’s respective impact on US GDP impact. We don’t expect implementation, if executed, to be maintained on a long-term basis.


The Morningstar Q1 Economic Outlook delivers updated forecasts on:

  • Tariffs & the “twin” deficits
  • Inflation
  • Interest rates
  • Consumer spending
  • Labor market & GDP
  • AI & real estate investment

Download the report to explore our latest insights and position your clients for success.

Share this page

What's Inside:

  • Examine GDP growth, inflation, and labor market trends shaping 2025. 

  • Assess how future Federal Reserve rate cuts may influence the U.S. economy. 

  • Determine the potential affects of tariff policy shifts on economic growth and market conditions. 

Get the Report