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We plan to slightly raise our $510 per share fair value estimate on wide-moat Costco as the warehouse club behemoth capped off an impressive fiscal 2024 that saw companywide comparable sales rise 6% and its operating margin expand by 30 basis points to 3.6%. We think Costco’s strong results speak volumes as to its attractive product assortment and low-cost value proposition, as its strong customer loyalty (membership renewal rates remain above 90%), frugal cost structure, and $2,000 in domestic sales per square foot (about three times that of wide-moat Walmart) remain the envy of the retail industry. While we maintain our optimistic stance regarding Costco’s prospects—we model mid-single-digit percentage growth in comparable sales and continued margin expansion—we still regard shares, trading at around 50 times our fiscal 2025 EPS forecast, as significantly overvalued.

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We think BlackBerry has positioned itself in rapidly growing markets that benefit from secular trends toward security and connectivity, but we think it has a long way to go to earn a durable competitive advantage. We like the firm’s automotive software portfolio, but see the larger enterprise security business as an underperformer that weighs on results. BlackBerry sells software into enterprise cybersecurity applications and embedded applications like cars. Its products in enterprise security focus on endpoint security. In the automotive market, BlackBerry’s QNX software underpins automotive chips, safety systems, and cabin features.
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BASF is the world’s largest chemical company, producing commodity and specialty chemicals in nearly every major category. The firm maintains a top-three market position in over two thirds of its businesses. Its products are sold to a wide variety of end markets ranging from industrials to transportation to pharmaceuticals to agriculture. The catalysts business generated around 17% of companywide revenue in 2023, while agriculture generated roughly 15%. The remaining 11 business lines accounted for roughly 10% or less. BASF is fairly vertically integrated, manufacturing many chemicals that serve as inputs to its other segments.
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Accenture is one of the largest IT-services companies in the world, providing both consulting and outsourcing capabilities. We think that Accenture’s growth will remain at a healthy and gradual pace, thanks to the persistence of digital transformation trends. With the company's prominent reputation, which we believe to be crucial to the consulting business, and its proven ability to bring expertise to a gamut of enterprise issues, we are confident Accenture will maintain its wide economic moat.
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Brickworks is a conglomerate consisting of building product manufacturing operations, property management, and a cross-shareholding in ASX-listed investment firm, Washington H. Soul Pattinson & Company, or Soul Patts.
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Washington H. Soul Pattinson, or Soul Patts, is a value style-oriented investment house with approximately AUD 12 billion in net equity value. Its approach to growing shareholder value is somewhat distinct from many fund managers and capital allocators, benefitting from advantages in its corporate structure, investment-style, and from a relatively unconstrained investment mandate.
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Southwest is the largest domestic carrier in the US by passenger volume. Southwest has stuck to its strategy of streamlining airline operations to maintain lower unit costs than its full service rivals, which it passes on to customers in the form of cheaper tickets and a low-frills experience.
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We expect Star Entertainment to deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from pandemic-induced lows, the ramp-up of the Queen's Wharf and Gold Coast growth projects, and solid performance from its Sydney property, despite increased competition. The Star casino in Sydney is the company's core asset and historically generated approximately most of group earnings as the city's only casino. However, Star's exclusivity in Sydney has come to an end with a second Sydney casino license issued to Crown Resorts, opening in August 2022. This is a major blow to Star, ending its long-standing monopoly in Sydney.
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Wide-moat Campbell has orchestrated significant changes since CEO Mark Clouse took the helm in January 2019. For one, the portfolio mix has shifted quite dramatically, such that its core soup lineup now accounts for only around one quarter of total sales (down from more than 40% in fiscal 2017) while snacks make up around 50% (up from less than 30%). In addition, the firm has worked to drive efficiencies across its supply chain and manufacturing network to fuel spending behind its brands and capabilities to solidify its competitive edge. These efforts have manifested in 3% average annual organic sales growth over the past five years against mid- to high-teens adjusted operating margins.
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TeamViewer offers secure remote connectivity software solutions to individuals, small and medium sized businesses and large enterprises globally. TeamViewer’s remote access and support software covers information technology devices such as computers, mobile phones, and tablets, as well as nonstandardized operation technology devices such as industrial equipment, robots, and medical devices, among others.
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Before its 2017 merger with Swift Transportation, Knight Transportation was the 12th-largest full-truckload carrier in the United States, with a long history of exceptional execution, including average returns on invested capital in the low teens—an unusual accomplishment in trucking. Knight's long-standing focus on network efficiency has served it well; its legacy operating ratio (expenses/revenue, excluding fuel) averaged in the mid-80s before the Swift deal versus an industry average that traditionally exceeds 90%.
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BorgWarner is well positioned to capitalize on auto sector industry trends arising from global clean air regulations, consumers' demand for fuel economy, and the popularity of sport utility and crossover vehicles around the world. The company benefits from its ability to continuously innovate, a global manufacturing footprint, highly integrated long-term customer ties, high customer switching costs, and moderate pricing power from new technologies. Acquisitions of vehicle electrification companies such as Remy, Delphi Technologies, Akasol, and Santroll as well as the completed spinoff of the fuel systems and aftermarket business lines as Phinia support our thesis.
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Allianz is one of the best-performing multiline insurers in our European insurance coverage. The company combines a unique set of assets to generate returns that are better than most others. In its property and casualty division, the company has continued to invest in technology and data to improve customer experience, as well as its policy and claims processing. By increasing the speed of its first notice of loss, the company gets ahead of inflation and can manage repairs and claims more effectively. While the division has not earned economic returns, from an underwriting perspective it is one of the better-performing segments. The business still has work to do in the consistency of its commercial insurance.
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Cintas is by far the dominant provider in the $20 billion US uniform rental/sales and related ancillary services industry. It enjoys an approximate 30% market share. It has a diversified customer base of more than 1 million large corporations and small and midsize businesses across North America, with no single customer making up more than 1% of total revenue. Despite its already impressive position, we expect Cintas to post healthy growth over the long run. The firm consistently launches new product lines, emphasizes cross-selling to existing customers, and invests in IT infrastructure to enhance customer retention and operational efficiency. With a market penetration rate of less than 20%, the remaining unvended market remains sizable.
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Darden Restaurants' playbook strives to leverage its competitive advantages, with the restaurant operator leaning into its scale-driven cost edge, embracing datacentric decision-making, trying to attract and retain employees with compelling benefits and culture, and providing a differentiated dining experience, consistent with management's back-to-basics strategy. While we view this approach as strategically sound, we expect any success at Darden to come in spite of, rather than propelled by, aggregate industry results, with the full-service industry ceding market share as consumers increasingly favor off-premises options at the expense of dine-in meal occasions.
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Brookfield Renewable holds a well-diversified global portfolio of clean energy technologies assets. It 12%-15% returns via a combination of organic growth and acquisitions. Brookfield takes a primarily contrarian approach to acquisitions.
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With strong positions in multiple key therapeutic areas, Novartis is well positioned for steady long-term cash flows. Strong intellectual property supporting multibillion-dollar products, combined with an abundance of late-pipeline products, creates a wide economic moat. While patent losses on multiple sclerosis drug Gilenya and cancer drug Afinitor will weigh on near-term growth, a strong portfolio of drugs along with a robust pipeline should ensure a steady long-term outlook.
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Brookfield Renewable holds a well-diversified global portfolio of clean energy technologies assets. The company targets 12%-15% returns via a combination of organic growth and acquisitions. Brookfield takes a primarily contrarian approach to acquisitions.
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Equity Lifestyle Properties is a residential REIT that focuses on owning manufactured housing, residential vehicle communities, and marinas. The company currently has a portfolio of 452 properties across the U.S. with a higher concentration in the Sunbelt region with 38% of the company’s properties located in Florida, 12% in Arizona, and 8% in California. Equity Lifestyle targets owning properties in attractive retirement destinations with over 70% of the company’s properties either being age-restricted or having an average resident age over 55.
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Interactive Brokers is a unique brokerage in our coverage. It serves a more niche client base. In addition to retail investors, the company caters to the trading of institutional clients like hedge and mutual funds, proprietary trading groups, introducing brokers, and financial advisors. The commission mix of retail and institutional clients is about 55%/45%. Most of Interactive Brokers' clients still choose to pay commissions, even though many other retail brokerages have switched to a zero-commission model for US stock trading. The clients of Interactive Brokers are more sophisticated than those of Charles Schwab and E-Trade. They trade more frequently, maintain higher cash balances to make opportunistic moves, and use more leverage. These trading-savvy customers are attracted by Interactive Brokers’ low margin rates, comprehensive trading platform, sophisticated trading execution capabilities, and high interest paid on idle cash.

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