Novo Nordisk: Disappointing Early Data for Novel Oral Obesity Drug

We’re not making any changes to our DKK 600/$86 fair value estimate for Novo Nordisk following somewhat disappointing early data for a novel oral obesity drug candidate, CB1-targeting monlunabant. We had not yet included monlunabant explicitly in our model, and we continue to see Novo’s progress with amylin-containing drug candidates—including phase 3 CagriSema (data expected later this year) and amycretin (phase 1 subcu data expected in 2025)—as more central to its obesity pipeline development. Novo and Eli Lilly are both leaders in what we see as a potential $200 billion global market for GLP-1 drugs, and their approved and pipeline obesity drugs help support their wide moats.