Novo Nordisk Earnings: Wegovy Supply, Obesity Pipeline in Focus; Maintaining Fair Value Estimates

We’re maintaining our DKK 600/$86 fair value estimates for Novo Nordisk following second-quarter results that were slightly below our very high expectations, but not enough to significantly sway our full-year expectations. In the first half of 2024, Novo Nordisk’s revenue grew 25% at constant currencies, with 32% GLP-1 diabetes growth (largely Ozempic) and 37% GLP-1 obesity growth (Wegovy). Management slightly raised its expected 2024 sales growth by 2 percentage points at the midpoint to 22%-28% at constant exchange rates (from a prior range of 19%-27%). Excluding an impairment related to a failed trial of cardiovascular drug ocedurenone, management’s 2024 operating profit growth expectations increased by roughly 4 percentage points, and we think the firm looks on track to produce solid double-digit performance in line with the midpoint of guidance in the second half.