Pembina Earnings: Alliance Pipeline, Aux Sable Transaction, Marketing Lead to 2024 Guidance Boost

Pembina Pipeline's first-quarter results were good. The company raised 2024 EBITDA guidance to a midpoint of CAD 4.175 billion from CAD 3.875 billion, including the now-completed Alliance pipeline and Aux Sable transaction as well as higher marketing profits. We had already anticipated the majority of the increase, and our forecast only rose modestly to CAD 4.2 billion from CAD 4.1 billion. We have increased our fair value estimate to CAD 51/USD 38 per share from CAD 46/USD 34. Our no-moat rating is unchanged.