Economy
Morningstar breaks down policies and events that impact the overall economy. Learn about relevant shifts, shocks, and developments in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
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Economic Topics
Inflation
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What to Invest in During High Inflation
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Softer April CPI Stops the Bleeding on Fed Rate Cut Hopes
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Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2024
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April US CPI Report Shows Inflation Up 0.3%, Softer Than Expected
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5 Cheap Stocks to Buy From an Attractive Part of the Market
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Forecasts for April CPI Report Show Continued Sticky Inflation
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Markets Brief: All Eyes On Inflation
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Can the Fed Declare Victory on Inflation?
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What Higher Inflation Means for Stock/Bond Correlations
Employment
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Job Gains Slow In April, but Too Soon to Say the Trend Has Changed
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April US Jobs Report: 175,000 Rise in Payrolls, Smaller Than Expected
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April Jobs Report Forecasts Predict Still-Strong Hiring
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Why We Expect the Job Market’s Slowdown to Renew in 2024
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Despite Strong Jobs Report, Fed Still Seen on Track to Cut Rates
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March US Jobs Report: 303,000 Rise In Payrolls, Stronger Than Expected
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March Jobs Report Forecasts Show Still-Strong but Slowing Hiring Gains
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Why the February Jobs Report Shows Solid—But Not ‘Hot’—Hiring Gains
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February U.S. Jobs Report: 275,000 Rise in Payrolls, Above Expectations
More in Economy
Can the Fed Declare Victory on Inflation?
‘It is not going to be a smooth ride down to 2%’ says chief financial analyst for Bankrate.
We Expect GDP Growth to Weaken Until Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rates
Our economic forecast is optimistic in the long run thanks to labor supply and productivity expansion.
4 Reasons the Economy Has Been Resilient to Higher Interest Rates
And why we don’t expect that resilience to last forever.
Bill Gross Warns Investors to Steer Clear of Bond Funds
Should you heed this legendary bond investor’s advice?
Markets Brief: Is It Really a Surprising Quarter for Earnings?
Plus: Apple’s outlook and Fed rate cuts on hold.
TIPS Versus I Bonds
I bonds boast tax advantages, but purchase limits reduce appeal.
Job Gains Slow In April, but Too Soon to Say the Trend Has Changed
Despite a softer jobs report, Fed is seen as needing more evidence before accelerating rate cuts.
Where We See Opportunities After an Ugly Month for Stocks
Our US stock market outlook and valuation for May 2024.
April US Jobs Report: 175,000 Rise in Payrolls, Smaller Than Expected
Unemployment rate edged up to 3.9%.
When Will the Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates?
Our latest economic forecast for interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth.
What’s the Difference Between the CPI and PCE Indexes?
Inflation is top of mind for investors, but there’s more than one way to measure consumer prices.
April Jobs Report Forecasts Predict Still-Strong Hiring
With inflation sticky, continued gains in hiring will likely keep Fed rate cuts on hold.
Markets Brief: AI Leaders Excel In Earnings Season So Far
Tech stocks with an AI advantage outperform, China markets could be stirring, and investors are turning their attention to the Fed.
With Sticky March PCE Inflation, When Will the Fed Hit Its 2% Target?
March PCE inflation index up 2.7%, stronger than expected.
Are You an Investment Historian or a Futurist?
Each approach has its advantages—and drawbacks.
Markets Brief: Stocks Are Starting to Look Cheap Again
Insights into key market performance and economic trends from Dan Kemp, Morningstar’s global chief research and investment officer.
The Dangerous Myth of ‘The New Normal’
The odds are against those who believe this time is different.
These 4 Charts Show Plunging Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts
The hot March CPI report has bond traders significantly paring back rate cuts in 2024.
March US CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 3.5% Annual Rate, Higher Than Expected
Core CPI rises at 3.8% annual rate.
Markets Brief: What Fewer Rate Cuts Could Mean for Stock Valuations
Insights into key market performance and economic trends from Dan Kemp, Morningstar’s global chief research and investment officer.