Jamie Dimon thinks the odds of a 'soft landing' are about half of what Wall Street expects

By Steve Gelsi

The JPMorgan Chase CEO's WSJ interview covered a range of topics - from his morning routine to his views on the Fed

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon ranked geopolitics as his top worry and said he's less optimistic about a soft landing than Wall Street in an interview on Thursday.

Sitting down with Wall Street Journal Editor-in-Chief Emma Tucker, Dimon tackled a range of topics from his morning routine to his view on life after his emergency heart surgery in 2020.

Reflecting themes in his annual letter to shareholders, Dimon doubled down on his cautious view on a soft landing and the threat of an "economic disaster" if Ukraine is defeated.

"I'm a little worried if Russia wins the war you'd kind of see the world enter a little bit of chaos as people realign alliances and economic relationships," Dimon said.

While Wall Street seems to be betting of a roughly 70% chance of avoiding a recession in a so-called soft landing in the economy, Dimon said he sees the odds about half that.

The green economy, the remilitarization of the world, fiscal deficits and geopolitics are all factors that could keep inflation higher for longer, he said.

"When I look at the range of possible outcomes, you can have that soft landing," Dimon said. "I'm a little more worried it may not be so soft and inflation may not quite go away as people expect. I'm not talking about this year - I'm talking about 2025 or 2026."

While the economy continues to do well for the majority of Americans due to low employment, rising home values and stronger stock prices, the threat of slow growth and inflation - stagflation - from roughly 45 to 50 years ago could return.

"It looks a little bit like the 70s to me," Dimon said. "Things looked pretty rosy in 1972. They were not rosy in 1973. Don't get lulled into a false sense of security."

Asked if he would consider becoming Fed chairman or Treasury Secretary, Dimon said he would not take the jobs.

Dimon said he has "enormous respect" for Jerome Powell when asked whether the Fed chairman is doing a good job as the central bank signals that it's not in a hurry to cut interest rates.

"I think the Fed was probably late in raising rates," Dimon said. "They caught up. They're probably right in watching right now. We don't know what's going to happen. They might as well wait."

Dimon declined to state a preference in presidential candidates and said the bank would work with whomever is in the White House.

Biden's economic policies are working "partially," he said, party due to the huge amounts of economic stimulus such as the Bipartisan infrastructure bill, which Dimon praised.

But the bottom 20% of wage earners in the U.S. continues to struggle.

"If you go to rural America, or inner cities, I'm not sure they feel they're being lifted up by this economy," he said.

Asked about the war in the Middle East, Dimon said Israel has a right to defend itself and that Hamas's Oct. 7 attack was "unjustifiable."

After his 2020 heart surgery and a bout with cancer before that, Dimon said he's become more deliberate in life, and his interest in wanting to help the Western world has increased.

On his days off, Dimon said he enjoys spending time with his daughters and his wife and has started playing squash again.

"I love my family, so we have a lot of family dinners when I'm around," Dimon said. "We hike together. We take vacations together. I love wine. I love music."

His daily routine includes waking up as early as 4:30 a.m. and reading five newspapers. He also believes that working five days in the office is "ideal."

He avoids social media but said he pulls up popular destinations such as TikTok once a year to see what's happening on them.

"I am not a fanatic on the phone....I think people should spend a little less time on that and a little more time thinking," Dimon said. "I'm not on any social media."

JPMorgan Chase's stock (JPM) has risen 13.7% so far in 2024, compared to a 5.85 gain by the S&P 500 SPX.

Also read: Jamie Dimon praises House leaders for Ukraine, Israel aid deal, but flags difficulty of getting anything done in the U.S.

-Steve Gelsi

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04-25-24 1831ET

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