Wheat Futures Drop as Kansas Outlook Improves — Daily Grain Highlights
By Kirk Maltais
-- Wheat for July delivery fell 1.9% to $6.50 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, with forecasts for the winter wheat harvest in Kansas perking up from previous years.
-- Corn for July delivery fell 0.9% to $4.52 3/4 a bushel.
-- Soybeans for July delivery rose 0.9% to $12.27 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Turned Tables: Winter wheat yield in Kansas is seen as rising to its highest since 2021, according to the Wheat Quality Council, which held a crop tour of the state's wheat fields this week. Kansas wheat production is forecast at 46.5 bushels an acre, totaling at 290.4 million bushels.
By comparison, the USDA is forecasting production at 267.9 million bushels, or 38 bushels an acre.
The higher outlook for Kansas is offsetting trader sentiments about lower production in Russia.
Outside Support: Crude-oil prices have been rising for three consecutive sessions, which is providing soyoil and, by extension, soybeans with support.
"Soybeans are finding light buying interest from the rebound in crude oil, which is also supporting soyoil," said Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting.
Crude oil has risen 1.9% in the those past three sessions, with soybeans connected to crude oil via renewable fuel. Potential tariffs on used cooking oils have also been supportive for soybeans and soyoil this week.
INSIGHT
Potential Issues: Soybean harvesting is experiencing issues in Brazil, with flooding in Rio Grande do Sul destroying harvesting equipment and harvested soybean stocks.
When combined with weather potentially slowing down planting of soybeans in the U.S., traders are beginning to think that global soybean supplies could experience issues, said Terry Reilly of Marex.
Soybeans are also getting support from NOPA's report earlier this week showing reduced soyoil stocks in the U.S.
Open the Floodgates: Areas affected by drought in the U.S. have grown increasingly smaller, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. The agency's weekly data shows that many Corn Belt states no longer have any drought conditions within their borders.
Iowa and Kansas continue to have large drought areas, but the severity of those conditions has eased.
"Drought is improving key growing areas," AgriSompo said in a note.
AHEAD
-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. EDT Monday.
-- The USDA is due to release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. EDT Monday.
-- The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 17, 2024 15:20 ET (19:20 GMT)
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