Graincorp Ltd Class A

GNC: XASX (AUS)

Morningstar Rating for Stocks	Fair Value	Economic Moat	Capital Allocation
	A$5.50	Zkz	Typwrkmj

GrainCorp: Conditions Continue to Normalize; Shares Overvalued

Angus Hewitt

May 6, 2024

Grain production volumes continue to revert toward a normalized year. The Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry estimates 2024 east coast winter grain production of about 23 million metric tons, a 22% decline from 2023. While this is only slightly ahead of the 10-year average, we expect production to fall further. Our estimate of normalized production remains about 18 million metric tons, based on a reversion to longer-term historical averages.

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