Company Reports

We are encouraged that Iqiyi has been successful at turning around its business to generate high-single-digit operating margins, which are a significant improvement from a 30% operating loss margin since its IPO in 2018. We expect Iqiyi to maintain profitability in the near term because of expectations of lower content costs that are 50%-60% of sales, rather than the 70%-80% level prior to 2022. However, we forecast that subscription prices and memberships will grow at only low-single-digit levels, given our view that Iqiyi will have challenges in retaining customers on a consistent basis and is vulnerable to switching costs and churn.

Since its 1982 inception, Copart has grown into the largest online salvage vehicle auction operator in the United States, connecting buyers and sellers around the world. The company has grown its top line nearly five-fold since 2009 due to a combination of significant land expansion and robust service quality to drive higher salvage vehicle volume. Copart receives the majority of its vehicle volume through contracts with large auto insurers and sells them on consignment for high margins. The company prioritizes maintaining amicable insurance relationships which are fostered by having adequate storage capacity (even after storms) and providing flexible service. All auctions have been online since 2003.

Applied Materials is the largest supplier in the world of wafer fabrication equipment for semiconductors. It holds the broadest portfolio, in our view, which we think should enable it to maintain its leading market share. In our view, Applied Materials' breadth in chip manufacturing gives it stickier inroads to customers by selling integrated solutions across technologies. We expect Applied Materials to grow at a mid-single-digit pace over the course of market cycles as it benefits from trends toward more-complex chips into the long term, including gate all-around transistors, advanced packaging, and artificial intelligence.

Wide-moat Walmart’s unrivaled scale relative to its brick-and-mortar retail peers provides the firm with the rare ability to formidably adapt to a dynamic retail landscape. Walmart benefits from an expansive physical footprint and entrenched position in the communities it serves, putting the retailer in close proximity to the vast majority of US consumers. The firm’s unique promise of a wide assortment of goods at low prices has allowed Walmart to retain its status as the nation’s preeminent retailer for over 30 years.

Cromwell Property Group is an Australian property company that currently generates most of its income from rent on properties it owns, and a lesser amount from property funds management. The latter includes property management services, investment management, and property acquisitions and development, in collaboration with customers. The group tends to own co-investment stakes in funds or properties that it manages for clients, particularly in its wholesale business. This provides a degree of alignment with clients, as well as providing another indirect source of rental income. Cromwell is growing its funds management business, and is exploring options to dispose of property assets, and instead act as fund manager of those assets, and build new funds management ventures. Directly held property investments account for more than half of group revenue, nearly all of this being offices. The office portfolio has significant exposure to less supply constrained areas such as fringe central business districts, or CBDs, or suburban sites in Sydney, or less built-up capital cities such as Canberra. Relative to its largest rivals, this makes Cromwell more exposed to economic and property market conditions. Increasing CBD supply and cautious businesses could particularly hurt tenant demand in suburban and fringe locations. Reassuringly, Cromwell has solid tenants in many sites, with government accounting for circa half of Australian rent, and a decade-long lease to Qantas another big chunk. A minority of earnings is from funds management activities, but this segment is likely to grow as Cromwell sells property assets and increases its focus on funds management. This segment generates a high return on equity because while it relinquishes rental income, it frees up capital for use elsewhere, while still generating management fees. A portion of revenue comes from indirect property holdings, mostly Cromwell’s stake in the Cromwell European REIT, listed in Singapore.

GrainCorp enjoys significant market shares in grain storage, handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but the diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. But we don't believe the firm has carved an economic moat, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the firm's cost of capital over the long term.

Incitec Pivot aims to expand its business around its strong global market share in explosives. This provides an increasingly stable earnings stream relative to volatile earnings from its fertilizer business. Competitive advantages include a duopoly Australian explosives business and global explosives operations. Incitec Pivot is also a dominant player in the Australian domestic fertilizer market and enjoys a degree of domestic fertilizer pricing power from its dominant market share in eastern states, but it is too small to influence global prices. The fertilizer business does not possess an economic moat.

Deere offers customers an extensive portfolio of agriculture and construction products. We think it will continue to be the leader in the agriculture industry and one of the top players in construction. For over a century, the company has been the pre-eminent manufacturer of mission-critical agricultural equipment, which has led to its place as one of the world’s most valuable brands. Deere’s strong brand is underpinned by its high-quality, extremely durable, and efficient products. Customers in developed markets also value Deere’s ability to reduce the total cost of ownership.

AES has narrowed its geographic and business focus by selling businesses in markets where the company did not have a strong platform or competitive advantage. We think his strategy has been in the best interest of shareholders. The company now has operations in fewer countries, a stronger balance sheet, and a rapidly growing renewable energy business.

Over the past three years, KBC Group has been the most profitable bank in our coverage in the eurozone. Only the Scandinavian banks have been more profitable in Europe as a whole. We believe that KBC can consistently generate returns on tangible equity comfortably in excess of our cost of equity estimate of around 10%.

We award a wide economic moat rating to Coca-Cola and expect its impressive brand portfolio underpinning pricing power and close retailer relations, combined with scale benefits stemming from a massive global system, to reinforce its competitive position in the nonalcoholic beverage market and drive excess investment returns.

Agilent focuses on providing tools to analyze the structural properties of various chemicals, molecules, and cells. The company is one of the leading providers of chromatography and mass spectrometry tools, which have applications in a variety of end markets, including the healthcare, chemical, food, and environmental fields. While healthcare-related applications, including clinical diagnostics, remain Agilent’s largest end market, Agilent generates about half of its sales from nonhealthcare fields.

Atlas Copco is a sharply focused supplier of capital equipment, with a selective presence in attractive market niches for engineered equipment where the firm can optimally leverage its reputation for innovation and quality products. In doing so, Atlas Copco seeks out industrial and scientific equipment categories that are considered mission-critical by their users and where it possesses or can assume a market leadership position from a technology and brand visibility standpoint. At the same time, the firm shuns significantly commoditized capital equipment categories and market segments. Its air compressor and vacuum pump and equipment businesses—its two largest, account for approximately three quarters of group EBIT—are prime examples of the firm’s discerning approach where it sports industry-leading market shares in medium- to high-end market segments.

Rational’s multifunctional cooking appliances have a significant presence in restaurants and community catering. Its granular strategy is focused on two cooking appliances used by professional kitchens combined with significant reinvestment into product development, which should allow the group to maintain its dominant market share of 50% and earn high returns on invested capital through superior product differentiation. Having pioneered the technology that combined hot air and steam for mass catering purposes, Rational has constantly been working on product upgrades to improve cost-savings versus traditional cooking appliances and existing models. Its latest product innovation combining hot air, steam, and microwave was launched at the start of 2024.

We expect Aristocrat Leisure will continue to dominate the electronic gaming machine market. With a strong balance sheet and commanding market position, Aristocrat's research and development expenditure is unmatched by peers. This investment is the lifeblood of any electronic gaming manufacturer, especially given rapidly changing technology and consumer demands, and allows Aristocrat to maintain game quality, differentiate products from lower-end competitors, and defend its narrow economic moat.

Grab is still in its growth phase as it continues to acquire more users in Southeast Asia of its mobility and delivery services, its core businesses. We expect Grab’s overall gross merchandise value, or GMV, to grow 41% year on year in 2023, and anticipate robust growth for 3-5 years as its core businesses have a dominant market position and a broad network of drivers and customers. However, profitability is a concern as we expect mobility to be the only profitable segment in 2023. The delivery service generates negative margins and Grab is incurring heavy losses from developing its financial services business that includes fintech payments and loans. Grab has also seen its advertising business grow into another revenue stream, which we believe will be a long-term catalyst.

Singapore Airlines, or SIA, is Singapore’s flagship carrier with a strong brand based on superior cabin service. However, the company’s dominance had been weakened in the prepandemic years by low-cost carriers, or LCCs, and the aggressive overseas expansion of the middle east's national carriers and Chinese airlines. While SIA has been building its discount brand Scoot, the proliferation of LCCs, however, made it difficult for SIA to maintain its market share and margins at the same time. However, we think the coronavirus disruption has given SIA a temporary advantage as SIA's financial strength and well planned staff resources enabled the carrier to bring out more flights to capture the rebound in travel demand.

Following the separation of the payment and merchandising technologies business as Crane NXT in April 2023, Crane’s portfolio consists of the aerospace and electronics, process flow technologies, and engineered materials segments. We think Crane owns a portfolio of moaty businesses that tend to be leaders in their niche markets, typically holding the number-one or number-two market share position. Crane manufactures highly engineered products that often perform a mission-critical function. Roughly 40% of its sales come from the aftermarket.

CSR is one of Australia’s leading building materials companies, producing bricks, plasterboard, insulation, fiber cement, aerated autoclaved concrete, and a variety of complementary building products. CSR manufactures and distributes recognized brands such as Gyprock plasterboard, PGH bricks, Monier roof tiles, Bradford insulation, and Hebel panels. It also holds a 25% effective interest in the Tomago aluminum smelter in a joint venture. Property development of surplus and excess land is also a key valuation driver, with a property portfolio valued at over AUD 1.5 billion.

We expect Recruit’s strategy to focus on expansion of its online marketplace for employment, Indeed, and to a lesser extent, expansion of its online review site for employers, Glassdoor.